The Global Fertility Crisis: Why Millennials and Gen Z Are Choosing Not to Have Children

The Fertility Crisis: Why the World is Choosing Not to Reproduce

"Bringing a child into a world you cannot provide for—are we committing an ethical crime?"

I recently watched a film called Kuffer Norm, and it shook me. The movie explores the struggles of a refugee child suing his parents for bringing him into a world they could not provide for. Philosophers call this antinatalism—the belief that bringing a child into the world without the ability to ensure a good life is fundamentally unethical.

This sentiment, surprisingly, isn’t just theoretical. In rural areas, women continue to have children despite poverty, lack of opportunities, and minimal resources. But if you look at wealthy urban centers like Mumbai or Bangalore, the exact opposite is happening—birth rates are dropping dramatically.

It’s not just that people don’t want children anymore. Human reproduction has been our species’ most profound purpose, hardwired into our biology. Yet suddenly, creating life has lost priority. This is happening all over the world, raising an urgent question: why are young people increasingly saying no to parenthood? Many genuinely want children, but they fear the realities of raising them in a country—and a world—where social, economic, and environmental pressures are overwhelming.

The answer, at first glance, seems simple: the economy. Nobody can afford kids anymore. But that’s only part of the story. The bigger picture is far more complex—and uncomfortable. At some point in life, every young adult faces a crossroads: to be or not to be a parent. Unlike choosing a career or buying a house, this decision is permanent and shapes the rest of your life. Making it requires clarity, independence from societal or parental pressure, and full awareness of the emotional, financial, and opportunity costs.

Global Perspective: Villages and Cities Dying Without Children

To understand the scale of the fertility crisis, we can look to some striking examples. In Japan, a small village called Ichino has fewer than 60 residents—but walking around, you’d think it’s much larger. That’s because villagers have installed life-sized human-like puppets to combat loneliness. In the last two decades, Ichino has seen only a single birth.

In Italy, the village of Massilla hasn’t had a single child born since 2015. In 2023, 358 other Italian villages reported the same: no births at all. This isn’t isolated. Regional extinction is being observed worldwide, mostly because fewer people are having children. Fertility rates are dropping, but global population can still grow temporarily due to past population momentum.

Population Dynamics: Why Fertility Decline Matters

Back in the mid-1900s, the average woman worldwide had about five children. A cohort of 100 women could produce 500 children, and even as generations passed, numbers kept rising. By 2000, the global population had climbed to 6.2 billion. But something shifted around the 1970s: fertility rates began to decline, and pockets of declining populations appeared worldwide.

Yet population continued to grow due to momentum—the large number of children born in previous decades grew up, had children of their own, and kept numbers climbing. Today, however, declining fertility combined with longer life expectancy is tipping the balance, creating a cascade of economic and social problems.

The key metric here is the replacement level: the number of children a family needs to have to replace the parents, roughly 2.1 per woman. Any lower, and the population shrinks over time. This imbalance affects economies, job markets, healthcare, pensions, and the very structure of societies.

Take India, where the Old-Age Dependency Ratio (OADR) is about 10%. This means for every 10 elderly people, there are 100 working-age adults supporting them. In countries like Japan, the OADR is 48%, creating severe stress on pensions, healthcare, and social systems. Government funds are redirected from infrastructure and education to elder care, and taxes rise, angering the younger workforce.

Economic Pressures: The Real Cost of Raising Children

Raising a child in India today is expensive. Consider two men from Mumbai: Adarsh, who chose to have a child, and Arun, an antinatalist who prioritized his personal and financial life.

Adarsh’s journey began with standard prenatal care, tests, medication, and finally delivery in a private hospital. But that was only the start. Infant needs—cribs, wardrobes, diapers, toys—followed. Pediatric visits, vaccinations, and formula milk added more, totaling around ₹2.7 lakh in the first year. Over 14 years of school, tuition, extracurriculars, transport, uniforms, and utilities add up to another ₹18 lakh. College, hostel, study materials, and daily expenses: another ₹18 lakh. That’s a total of ₹38 lakh, and this is for a middle-class Tier 1 city child.

Meanwhile, Arun and his wife invest the same money in travel, experiences, and personal growth—building a fulfilling life without worrying about whether they can provide adequately for a child.

This is why younger generations hesitate. Children are not just a financial commitment—they’re a multi-decade obligation, impacting careers, dreams, and personal freedom. According to UNFPA, 39% of people cite financial constraints as the primary reason for not having children, 32% cite high cost of living, 22% fear recession, and 18% cannot afford a home. Student debt, urban living costs, and long working hours compound the issue.

Cultural, Feminist, and Social Factors

Beyond money, cultural and social shifts influence fertility. Access to contraception, safe abortion, and sexual education has decoupled sex from reproduction. Women increasingly pursue careers and financial independence before considering motherhood. Hypogamy—marrying partners of equal or higher status—also reduces birth rates. With women surpassing men in higher education enrollment by 30%, fewer early marriages happen, lowering fertility further.

Historic patriarchy, which once forced women to have children to continue family lines, is fading. Domestic violence rates, career ambitions, and personal choice all contribute to declining fertility. Young people today are prioritizing well-being, experiences, travel, and hobbies over traditional parenthood.

Global Fertility Trends and Consequences

South Korea now holds the world’s lowest fertility rate: 0.75 in 2024. A cohort of 100 women produces only 75 children, and the shrinking trend is exponential. 

Mandatory military service exacerbates demographic imbalance, while rural women lose access to maternity care, further reducing births. Cities like Busan have lost 600,000 people since 1995, exemplifying regional extinction.

In Africa, by contrast, high fertility rates (around 4.33 per woman) will lead to significant population growth. By 2100, African nations may account for nearly half of global births, shifting economic power toward young, growing populations. Meanwhile, parts of East Asia, Europe, and North America are losing influence due to smaller, aging workforces.

Fertility is not just a family matter; it reshapes geopolitics, economies, and society. It dictates which cities grow, which regions decline, and who sets the global agenda.

Policy Failures and Lessons

Top-down policies rarely work. Romania’s Nicolae Ceaușescu attempted to reverse low fertility with bans on abortion and contraception, taxes on the childless, and incentives for large families. Hospitals were overwhelmed, women suffered, and social consequences were severe. Fertility improved temporarily but ultimately collapsed once cultural norms and personal choice were ignored.

History and modern evidence show that fertility cannot be forced—it must be guided, supported, and respected. Individual choice, economic stability, and social support are far more effective than coercion.

Conclusion: Antinatalism, Ethics, and the Future

Antinatalism—a philosophy gaining momentum—is rooted in ethical concern for potential children. In an uncertain world of climate change, pandemics, war, economic instability, and environmental degradation, choosing not to have children is increasingly rational and morally defensible.

The fertility crisis is multi-factorial: economic pressures, cultural shifts, individual priorities, gender equality, and ethical considerations all play a role. Governments can guide, support, and incentivize—but they cannot override personal choice.

Ultimately, fertility is a deeply personal decision with profound societal implications. Understanding the costs, social trends, and ethical considerations is essential for making informed choices in the 21st century. Whether you choose to have children or not, the future of societies and economies will hinge on these choices.

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