A fresh crisis is taking shape in the global automobile industry—one that has nothing to do with electric vehicles. This time, the spotlight is on petrol-powered cars and on China, the world’s biggest exporter of automobiles. Despite its rapid EV push, China still sells a massive number of vehicles running on fossil fuels. And projections suggest something significant: China is set to export more than 4 million petrol cars, marking a dramatic global shift.
Here’s what’s driving this change.
China’s traditional carmakers have been pushed to the margins at home. With Beijing heavily subsidising electric vehicles, EV prices have fallen sharply, boosting sales and putting pressure on older petrol-car manufacturers.
Left with huge inventories of unsold vehicles, these companies are now redirecting their combustion-engine models to emerging markets. These cars come packed with features, they’re aggressively priced, and they’re difficult for global competitors to match. As a result, international automakers are steadily losing ground. Some governments have responded with tariffs and import rules, but these measures may not be enough to slow the surge.
China’s EV revolution, while celebrated, has triggered an unexpected ripple effect worldwide. As China dominates the electric market at home, it’s simultaneously flooding the global market with petrol cars—reshaping the industry far from the US and Europe, and deep inside the developing world.
Let’s break down the numbers.
China is now the largest auto exporter on the planet, expected to ship around 6.5 million vehicles this year. While that includes EVs, the bulk of the volume is still fossil-fuel powered. Gasoline vehicles alone make up about 4.3 million units, nearly two-thirds of the entire export tally.
Who is driving this petrol-car wave? Not Tesla or even BYD. The engine behind this boom is China’s state-owned giants—SAIC, Dongfeng, BAIC, Changan, Chery—veteran manufacturers that once ran joint ventures with Honda, Nissan, and GM.
After losing domestic market share to the EV price war, they shifted strategies and turned outward. Chery now leads the export race with 2.6 million global sales in 2024, mostly petrol cars. Private players like JAC and Great Wall Motors are also exporting more combustion-engine cars than electric ones. Only BYD and Tesla remain fully committed to EV exports.
Why is all this happening now?
Because of overcapacity. China spent years building new EV plants but never shut down the old ones. As a result, a massive production base for petrol cars still exists—factories capable of producing up to 30 million combustion vehicles. Rather than dismantle them, automakers are pushing the output abroad.
Where are these cars ending up? Not in the US or EU, where tariffs and strict regulations make entry nearly impossible.
Instead, China is zeroing in on emerging and mid-tier markets—Latin America, Africa, Eastern Europe, West Asia, Southeast Asia—regions where EV charging networks are weak and petrol cars remain king. And in these markets, Chinese models are winning rapidly. In Poland, Chinese brands are expanding fast. In Chile, they command a third of the market. In South Africa, they hold around 16%.
Their advantage is simple: price + features. Many of these vehicles use older global designs, making them cheaper to build. The Dongfeng Rich 6, for example, is based on a Nissan platform but sells for nearly $10,000 less. Models like these are becoming common in Africa and South America. Western automakers are now being outmatched—not by China’s EVs, but by its older petrol fleet.
Governments are beginning to strike back. Mexico has sharply increased tariffs. Russia has raised import duties. South Africa is weighing policies that encourage local manufacturing while also curbing cheap imports. This issue has now evolved beyond trade—it’s turning into a global geopolitical challenge.
So what does this mean for the future of automobiles?
The real battleground for market dominance is no longer in Europe or North America. It lies in emerging economies, where EV infrastructure is limited and petrol cars remain essential. China has spotted this gap before others—and is rushing to fill it with affordable, feature-rich vehicles.
For traditional global automakers, this moment is a crucial warning. While the world debates EV tariffs, China’s petrol cars are quietly taking over vast markets, and their momentum is only accelerating.
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