The US–Israel War on Iran:
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From Trump calling Iran's counter-proposal "TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE" and Iran demanding reparations plus sovereignty over Hormuz, to US forces disabling two Iranian tankers, striking Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island, Iran launching drone strikes on Qatar, the UAE, and Kuwait on Day 69 — to a first Qatari LNG tanker transiting the strait in 72 days and Israel–Lebanon talks scheduled for Washington May 14 — the war's most volatile stretch since the ceasefire, now entering Day 72. Updated through May 11, 2026.
Seventy-two days in. Iran's counter-proposal was rejected as "TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE" by Trump. Iran launched drone strikes on Qatar, the UAE, and Kuwait in a single day. US forces disabled two more Iranian tankers, struck Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island. An oil spill spreads from Kharg Island. And yet — a single Qatari LNG carrier slipped through the strait, bound for Pakistan, as a fragile signal that some negotiated passage is possible. The war is diplomatically stuck, militarily escalating, and economically grinding the world down.
The war began at midnight Tehran time on February 28. Within hours, Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was dead — killed in an Israeli air strike. The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway carrying roughly 20% of the world's oil, was shut. The global economy entered a spiral the IEA describes as the "largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market." Every negotiation attempt has either collapsed or stalled. The "dual blockade" — the US Navy blockading Iranian ports while Iran blocks Hormuz — remains in place. Iran's counter-proposal was dismissed. Project Freedom is paused. The Senate AUMF debate has opened. Trump visits China this week. The world watches whether Beijing can deliver what diplomacy has so far failed to produce.
The Complete Timeline: From Day 1 to Day 72
Oman's FM Badr Al-Busaidi announces a breakthrough — Iran agreed to halt uranium enrichment, allow IAEA verification, and irreversibly downgrade enriched uranium. Talks were due to resume March 2. Al-Busaidi later said he was "dismayed" when strikes came the very next day.
US and Israeli forces launch simultaneous strikes using B-2 stealth bombers, B-1 Lancers, B-52s, Tomahawk missiles, and HIMARS. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei killed along with family members. Defence Minister Nasirzadeh, IRGC Commander Pakpour, and Defence Council Secretary Shamkhani also killed. Over 19 Iranian ships and nearly 2,000 targets destroyed. An elementary girls' school in Minab is struck. Iran declares 40 days of mourning.
Iran's IRGC declares the Strait of Hormuz closed. IRGCN blows up 10 commercial vessels attempting transit. Hezbollah launches strikes on Israel; Israel responds with widespread strikes. At least 20 civilians killed in Tehran's Niloofar Square. Iran's state broadcaster IRIB headquarters struck.
IEA activates the largest emergency reserve release in history — 400 million barrels including 172M from the US SPR. Iran's Red Crescent reports 600+ civilians killed and over 6,668 civilian units targeted. On March 8, Mojtaba Khamenei — son of the assassinated leader — is elected new Supreme Leader. A third US carrier (USS George H.W. Bush) deploys to the region.
CENTCOM strikes 90 targets at Kharg Island. Iran retaliates by striking Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG field — wiping out 17% of Qatar's LNG export capacity for up to five years. Hezbollah fires 3,500+ missiles at Israel. IDF begins ground operations in southern Lebanon on March 16.
Iran launches ballistic missiles at Diego Garcia. Israel launches second wave of Tehran strikes. Iran formally rejects the US 15-point peace plan. US average gas crosses $4/gallon. FT investigates $580M in suspicious futures bets placed 15 minutes before Trump's March 23 pause announcement.
Iran strikes Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia — 15 US troops wounded, E-3 Sentry AWACS destroyed. Nuclear research chief Ali Pouladvand and senior scientist Mohammad Reza Kia killed. Brent crude peaks at $126/barrel. QatarEnergy declares force majeure on all LNG exports. Houthis fire first ballistic missiles at Israel.
Overnight US-Israeli strikes knock out power across Tehran. Kuwait's Mina Al-Ahmadi refinery catches fire. Trump shocks allies by telling countries struggling with fuel shortages to "go get your own oil." Arab states' collective oil production drops by at least 10M barrels/day.
Iran launches one of its biggest attacks on Israel just before Passover. Trump's April 2 address declares the US has "destroyed the Iranian military." On April 3, Iran shoots down a US F-15E Strike Eagle and an A-10 Warthog. Defence Secretary Hegseth fires the Army's top general and two senior officers.
SEAL Team 6 rescues the Air Force colonel WSO after 24+ hours in mountainous terrain. A strike hits the perimeter of Bushehr nuclear plant; IAEA confirms one staff member killed. Iran strikes near Dimona, wounding 180. On April 6, Trump posts "A whole civilization will die tonight" — then agrees to a ceasefire less than two hours before his 8pm deadline.
Trump announces a two-week ceasefire contingent on Iran opening Hormuz. Iranian FM Araghchi confirms acceptance. Dow Jones surges 1,000+ points. Brent drops below $100. Within hours, Iran signals shipping will require IRGC "coordination." $950M in suspicious oil futures bets placed shortly before the ceasefire announcement.
Only 6–8 ships transit per day (vs 100+ pre-war). Iran confirms mines in the strait. April 11–12: Historic 21-hour direct US–Iran talks in Islamabad — VP Vance, Witkoff, Kushner vs Ghalibaf's team. They end without a deal: US demanded 20-year enrichment suspension; Iran offered 5 years. Iran FM: deal was "inches away" when US shifted positions.
US Central Command activates a full maritime blockade of all traffic entering or leaving Iranian ports. UK and Spain refuse to join. Brent crude surges 8% back above $100.
Trump announces a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. Iran's FM declares Hormuz "completely open" — oil plunges nearly 12%, Brent briefly below $84. A third suspicious bet of $750M on falling oil futures placed 20 minutes before the FM's announcement.
Iran re-closes the Strait of Hormuz on April 19, citing US "breaches of trust." The IRGC fires warning shots at Indian-flagged ships and a French CMA CGM vessel. USS Spruance fires on and seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship Touska — blockade's first ship interception. Brent surges 7%+ back to $96–97. Zero tankers pass through on April 20.
Trump extends the ceasefire indefinitely via Truth Social — citing Iran's "seriously fractured" government. Iran detained two cargo ships. Brent closed at $105.07. Israeli broadcaster N12 reported Ghalibaf resigned over IRGC interference. US Navy Secretary John Phelan fired amid Pentagon tensions.
Trump extended the Israel–Lebanon ceasefire three weeks. Netanyahu disclosed early-stage prostate cancer. Russia formally offered to take custody of Iran's enriched uranium. Araghchi met Putin in St. Petersburg; Putin backed Iran "bravely fighting for sovereignty." Three US carriers in the Middle East for first time since 2003. Brent spiked to $108.36. Iran submitted a major "Hormuz First" proposal via Pakistan.
Iran's national internet shutdown confirmed affecting all 90 million citizens. Trump sent War Powers letters to Congress declaring hostilities "terminated" — defusing the 60-day legal deadline while signalling war could resume. CENTCOM's Admiral Cooper briefed Trump on "short and powerful" strike options. An IDF soldier was killed by a Hezbollah drone in southern Lebanon. Iran-linked hackers sent threatening texts to US Marines' personal phones. 5,000 US troops confirmed leaving Germany. Sen. Murkowski warned she will introduce AUMF if no credible plan by May 11.
Trump announced "Project Freedom" on May 3 — 15,000 US service members, guided-missile destroyers, 100+ aircraft. On May 4, CENTCOM helicopters sank six Iranian fast-attack boats. An Iranian drone struck Fujairah oil plant in UAE, injuring three Indian nationals. UAE and Oman intercepted Iranian missiles and drones. Iran announced a new "Strait Authority" requiring IRGC permits for all ship transits. A tanker was hit by an unknown projectile. Iran confirmed reviewing the US reply to its 14-point peace proposal. IRGC-aligned media claimed (unconfirmed) two missiles hit a US frigate; CENTCOM denied.
Rubio formally declared Operation Epic Fury "concluded." Trump paused Project Freedom citing Pakistan's request and diplomatic progress. UAE was attacked a second straight day. Araghchi met Chinese FM Wang Yi in Beijing — first face-to-face since war began. Trump said oil prices are "small price to pay." US gas $4.48. Saudi Arabia banned US aircraft from Prince Sultan Air Base and its airspace, reportedly angered by Project Freedom's launch — forcing its pause.
CENTCOM confirmed strikes on Iranian military facilities in Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island after Iran launched a combined missile, drone, and small-boat attack on USS Truxton and USS Mason. Iran accused US of striking civilian areas. Six people went missing. Chinese-crewed chemical tanker JV Innovation attacked near the strait — first Chinese-owned vessel targeted; China's Foreign Ministry expressed concern. Iran seized tanker Ocean Koi.
US forces disabled two Iranian oil tankers attempting to breach the blockade; US military posted video of jet striking their smokestacks. UAE defence ministry reported three wounded after its defences engaged two Iranian ballistic missiles and three drones. Satellite imagery revealed an oil spill of 71 sq km from Kharg Island — approximately 80,000 barrels spilled, spreading toward UAE and Qatar. Rubio: "They threaten Americans, they are going to be blown up." US awaiting Iran's formal response to latest peace proposal.
Iran launched drone strikes across Qatar, UAE, and Kuwait on May 10 — the broadest single-day Gulf strike campaign since the ceasefire. Qatar condemned a drone fire on a ship off Mesaieed Port. Kuwait responded to hostile drones in its airspace; UAE intercepted two Iranian drones. Trump told PBS the war has "a very good chance of ending." Then on Sunday May 10, Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran's counter-proposal — demanding sovereignty over Hormuz, reparations, and all-fronts ceasefire with no nuclear provisions — was "TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE." NSA Waltz confirmed on ABC's "This Week" that Trump was "giving diplomacy every chance" before resuming hostilities. Meanwhile, the QatarEnergy LNG tanker Al Kharaitiyat transited Hormuz bound for Pakistan — the first Qatari LNG transit in 72 days — as an Iranian confidence-building gesture toward key mediators.
The Senate returns with the AUMF measure introduced by Sen. Murkowski formally on the table, as Trump has declared hostilities "terminated" and Rubio declared the air campaign "concluded" — but fighting in and around the strait continues. Israel–Lebanon ceasefire talks scheduled for Washington on May 14. Netanyahu told CBS that Israel should wean itself off US military support to zero. Trump heads to China this week; his summit with Xi Jinping is the most significant diplomatic moment since the war began, with Beijing's leverage over Tehran now seen as the primary untapped variable. Gas nationally at $4.52 per AAA. Brent crude approximately $88/barrel — roughly $20 above pre-war levels, easing from recent highs as some diplomatic signalling softens the near-term escalation picture. Talks deadlocked. Blockade holds. Watch this page.
The Human Cost: Casualties Across the Region
As of May 11, 2026 (Day 72): At least 3,636 people have been killed in Iran per HRANA verified counts (up from 3,468 in the earlier count) — with the US and Israel estimating the toll at 6,000+. Lebanon's toll stands at 2,600+ killed and 8,020+ injured. The total across all fronts stands at 6,285–8,817+ verified killed. The US has confirmed 15 KIA and 538 wounded. Israel reports 47 civilian deaths and 18 soldiers killed. The UAE has confirmed 13 killed and 224+ wounded from Iranian strikes across the war.
| Location | Deaths | Wounded | Displaced |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran | 3,636+ (HRANA); up to 6,000+ (US/Israel estimate) | 15,000–26,500+ | Millions internally |
| Lebanon | 2,600+ (Lebanese authorities) | 8,020+ | 1,000,000+ (over 1/6 of population) |
| Iraq | 117+ | 361 | — |
| Israel | 47 civilians; 18 IDF soldiers; 1 contractor | 8,590+ treated | ~700,000 (north Israel) |
| UAE | 13 | 224+ (incl. 3 Indians — Fujairah, May 4; 3 more May 8) | — |
| Other Gulf States | 16+ (Kuwait 10, Bahrain 3, Saudi 3, Oman 3) | 201+ | — |
| US Military | 15 confirmed KIA | 538 (Pentagon) | — |
| TOTAL — all fronts | 6,285–8,817+ verified; possibly 10,000+ actual | 44,500+ estimated | 4,000,000+ |
"I have just read the response from Iran's so-called 'Representatives.' I don't like it — TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE! For 47 years the Iranians have been 'tapping' us along, keeping us waiting, killing our people." — President Donald Trump, Truth Social, May 10, 2026 — rejecting Iran's counter-proposal
The Diplomatic Picture as of May 11, 2026
Trump's position: Rejected Iran's counter-proposal as "TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE" on May 10. The US naval blockade of Iranian ports remains fully in force. Rubio declared Operation Epic Fury "concluded" — but US forces have continued striking Iranian targets and disabling Iranian tankers throughout the period. Project Freedom remains paused. Trump heads to China this week for a summit with Xi Jinping seen as the most important diplomatic moment since the war began. NSA Waltz says Trump is "giving diplomacy every chance" before resuming hostilities. US gas at $4.52.
Iran's position: Counter-proposal submitted via Pakistan demanded Hormuz sovereignty recognition, war reparations, frozen asset release, all-sanctions lifted, and an all-fronts ceasefire — with no nuclear provisions. Trump rejected it. Iran continues drone and missile attacks on Gulf states. Iran approved a single Qatari LNG transit as a confidence-building gesture to Pakistan and Qatar. Iran's IRGC launched drone strikes on Qatar, UAE, and Kuwait on May 10. Ghalibaf has resurfaced, saying Iran has "not even begun yet."
Lebanon: Israel–Lebanon ceasefire talks scheduled for Washington May 14. Israeli strikes continue in Lebanon; Lebanese authorities report 2,600+ killed and 1 million+ displaced. A Syrian father and his 12-year-old daughter were killed by Israeli drone strike on May 10. Hezbollah drone and missile attacks on Israel continue.
War Powers / Congress: AUMF introduced by Sen. Murkowski as Senate reconvenes May 11. Trump declared hostilities "terminated" in May 1 War Powers letter. Trump has called the War Powers Resolution "totally unconstitutional." Bipartisan opposition to $200B supplemental war spending continues.
Russia / China: Rubio spoke with Lavrov May 5. Russia's uranium custody offer still on the table. Trump's China visit this week is key — Beijing is Iran's largest crude customer and has growing incentive to push for a deal. Araghchi met Wang Yi in Beijing on May 6. China's Foreign Ministry raised concern after the Chinese-crewed tanker JV Innovation was attacked near the strait on May 7.
Active mediators: Pakistan (primary — PM Sharif continues channel), Qatar (facilitated LNG transit), Oman, Turkey, Egypt, Russia, China (now actively engaged). Israel–Lebanon talks in Washington May 14.
The Economic Fallout: Worst Oil Shock in Recorded History
The IEA characterises this as the "largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market." Brent peaked at $126 in late March, dropped below $84 when Iran briefly declared Hormuz open in April, then surged back. As of May 11, Brent is approximately $88 per barrel — roughly $20 above pre-war levels — having eased significantly from the $107–108 highs of late April and early May, as some limited diplomatic signalling tempers near-term escalation fears. US gas averages $4.52 nationally (AAA). Energy Secretary Chris Wright suggested the administration may consider suspending the federal gas tax. Qatar's Energy Minister has warned oil could hit $150 if the war drags through summer. Shipping rates from Asia to Europe remain approximately 280% above pre-war levels. Iran has lost an estimated $4.8 billion+ in oil revenue from the US blockade. An 80,000-barrel oil spill is spreading from Kharg Island toward the UAE and Qatar coastlines.
What Happens Next: Scenarios for the Coming Days
Day 72 finds the conflict more militarily active than it has been since the ceasefire — but also with Brent crude easing and some limited ship transits suggesting Iran is selectively managing the strait rather than sealing it absolutely. The most critical pivot point is Trump's China summit this week. If Xi delivers meaningful pressure on Tehran, a framework may emerge. If the summit yields only platitudes, the IRGC's 30-day blockade deadline, the Senate AUMF, and Iran's hardliner faction all push toward resumption of major hostilities. Iran's rejection of any nuclear provisions in its counter-proposal remains the core deadlock.
Trump's China visit produces substantive Xi-backed pressure on Tehran to drop Hormuz sovereignty demand and nuclear red lines. A phased framework — Hormuz reopens, blockade eases, nuclear talks deferred — gets agreed via Pakistan-Qatar channel. Russia's uranium custody offer bridges the nuclear gap. Brent falls toward $75–80. The Senate AUMF and IRGC deadline become moot. Extremely fragile — hardliners in Tehran could still derail any agreement.
Iran selectively approves limited ship exits — LNG to Pakistan, Turkish and Chinese vessels — while maintaining formal closure. US blockade continues. No formal deal but no full-scale resumption of bombing. Trump–Xi talks produce symbolic gestures only. Senate AUMF debate produces no binding vote. Oil stays $85–100. The economic attrition on both sides continues into summer with back-channel talks ongoing but unresolved.
Trump–Xi summit fails to move Tehran. IRGC 30-day blockade deadline expires. Trump restarts Project Freedom or authorises the "short campaign" CNN reported Israel and US were preparing. IRGC attacks on US naval assets trigger full retaliation. Rubio's "Epic Fury concluded" is reversed. Lebanon ceasefire collapses. Brent crosses $120–130. Global recession becomes near-certain. A fourth suspicious oil futures bet precedes the announcement.
"President Trump has been clear — they will never have a nuclear weapon and they cannot hold the world's economies hostage. He is giving diplomacy every chance that he can before going back to hostilities." — National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, ABC's "This Week," May 10, 2026
Iran's Leadership Decimated: The Decapitation Strategy
| Name | Position | Date / Event |
|---|---|---|
| Ali Khamenei | Supreme Leader of Iran | Feb 28, 2026 — Assassinated |
| Aziz Nasirzadeh | Defence Minister | Feb 28, 2026 |
| Mohammad Pakpour | IRGC Commander | Feb 28, 2026 |
| Ali Shamkhani | Defence Council Secretary | Feb 28, 2026 |
| Ali Larijani | Supreme National Security Council | Mar 17, 2026 |
| Alireza Tangsiri | IRGC Navy Commander | Mar 25, 2026 |
| Ali Pouladvand & Mohammad Reza Kia | SPND nuclear research chief & senior scientist | Mar 27, 2026 |
| Iran's Intelligence Minister | Head of Ministry of Intelligence | Late Mar 2026 |
| Makram Atimi | IRGC Ballistic Missile Chief (central unit) | Apr 3, 2026 |
| Hussein Makled | Head of Hezbollah's Intelligence HQ | Apr 3, 2026 (Lebanon) |
| Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf | Parliament Speaker & chief negotiator | Apr 24 — Reportedly resigned (IRGC pressure); resurfaced May 4 on X: Iran has "not even begun yet" |
Global Economic Impact: Country by Country
| Country / Region | % Oil via Hormuz | Key Impact | Government Response |
|---|---|---|---|
| Japan | ~70% | Near 95% oil import dependent; most exposed developed economy; Korean Air in "emergency management mode" | Emergency cabinet meetings; 90-day reserve release; pushing diplomatic resolution |
| India | ~50–65% | Rupee at record ₹94.86/$; LPG imports 90% Hormuz-dependent; IRGC fired warning shots at Indian ships Apr 19; three Indian nationals injured Fujairah May 4; India called attacks "unacceptable" | Cut excise duty ₹10/litre; Navy's Operation Urja Suraksha escorts ships; purchasing Iranian oil since 2018 |
| South Korea | ~60–70% | Korean Air in "emergency management mode"; Samsung/SK Hynix helium supply at risk; HMM vessel Namu struck May 4; fuel surcharges nearly doubled; tanker with 1M barrels arrived off South Korea coast May 8 after transiting Hormuz in mid-April | Fuel price caps; postponing coal decommissioning |
| Pakistan | ~80%+ | Near total import dependence; rolling power blackouts from LNG halt; PM Sharif requested Project Freedom pause; first Qatari LNG vessel bound for Port Qasim transited Hormuz May 10 | PM, FM, and Army Chief actively mediating; FM Dar facilitating indirect talks; played key role in winning Qatari LNG transit |
| Europe | ~12–14% LNG | Inflation at 3%; Qatar LNG capacity cut 17%; shipping rates +280%; Switzerland halted US weapons exports and closed airspace to US military flights; UK/France planning multinational maritime mission | UK/France hosted 40-nation virtual Hormuz summit; EU says too early to lift Iran sanctions; UK confirmed US can use British bases for "defensive" strikes |
| US (domestic) | — | Gas at $4.52/gallon (AAA, May 10); Energy Sec. Wright suggests suspending federal gas tax; war cost $18B+ with $200B more requested; blockade active; 15 KIA; Senate AUMF debate opened May 11 | SPR releases; 30-day Russia oil sanction waiver; dual blockade maintained; mine-clearing operations; US crude exports at record high; Senate AUMF vote pending |
| China | ~40–45% | Chinese-crewed tanker JV Innovation attacked near strait May 7 — China's FM expressed concern; Araghchi met Wang Yi May 6; Trump summit with Xi this week — Rubio urged Beijing to press Iran; China blocking UNSC Hormuz resolutions with Russia | Buying Iranian oil at discount; FM Yi engaged diplomatically; blocking UNSC resolutions; Xi summit with Trump this week is key variable |
| UAE | — | Attacked by Iran on May 4, 5, 8, and 10 (four times in a week); Fujairah oil plant fire; 3 wounded May 8; overall 13 killed in war; Kharg Island oil spill could reach UAE shores in ~2 weeks | Air defences activated; international condemnation; UAE backed Bahrain with AED20B currency swap; Saudi Crown Prince vowed military force against further Iranian incursions |
| Qatar | — | LNG capacity cut 17% since Ras Laffan strike Mar 13; first LNG transit to Pakistan approved May 10 as confidence measure; drone hit cargo ship in Qatari waters May 10 — Qatar called it "dangerous and unacceptable escalation" | QatarEnergy declared force majeure; FM engaged in mediation; facilitated LNG transit to Pakistan as confidence measure |
| Iran | — | Rial at ~1.32M per dollar; IMF projects -6.1% GDP, 68.9% inflation; $4.8B+ oil revenue lost; counter-proposal rejected by Trump; 90M citizens on restricted internet; HRANA: 3,636 killed; $270B–$1T in economic damage | Counter-proposal submitted via Pakistan; approved Qatar LNG and Panama vessel transits as confidence measures; continuing drone/missile attacks on Gulf; Araghchi in Beijing diplomacy |
| Airlines globally | — | Jet fuel costs +95% in US; oil demand falling at fastest rate since Covid pandemic; Air NZ, Vietnam Airlines cutting flights; Ryanair warns 5–10% summer cancellations; Somalia's humanitarian situation deteriorating amid closed strait | Multiple airlines seeking government support; fuel surcharges widespread; federal gas tax suspension under consideration (US) |
People Also Ask
Seventy-two days in. The air campaign has been formally declared "concluded." Project Freedom launched and was paused in 48 hours. Iran's counter-proposal was dismissed as "TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE." Iran struck Qatar, the UAE, and Kuwait in a single day. US forces disabled two more Iranian tankers and struck Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island. An oil spill spreads from Kharg Island. And a single Qatari LNG tanker slipped through the strait to Pakistan — proof that a deal is possible, and proof of how far we are from one.
The updated toll: 3,636+ killed in Iran (HRANA verified). 2,600+ dead in Lebanon. 15 US military killed. 47 Israeli civilians and 18 IDF soldiers killed. 13 killed in the UAE. Over 4 million displaced. Brent crude around $88. US gas at $4.52. Iran's economy shrinking 6.1% this year. Roughly 2,000 ships and 20,000 seafarers still stranded in the Persian Gulf — with at least 12 seafarers confirmed killed or missing as a result of the crisis.
The most critical flashpoints: Trump's China summit this week — can Xi deliver meaningful pressure on Tehran's Hormuz sovereignty demand? The Senate AUMF vote. The IRGC's 30-day blockade deadline. And whether Iran's hardline faction allows any diplomatic flexibility after the civilian government's counter-proposal was publicly humiliated by Trump's Truth Social rejection.
Talks are deadlocked. The blockade holds. China is the new centre of gravity. The Senate reconvenes. Watch this page.
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